I write systems-first analysis of power and order, focusing on how coercion, logistics, institutions, and human behavior shape outcomes over time.
Featured Publications
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The Barracks Veto
Why coercive elites remain veto players in every regime
Hegemony Under Stress Test
Why a multipolar world pushes the U.S. toward speed and risk-taking.
Cores, Hinges, and the Logic of the Map
Structural path dependence in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea movement systems.
Why Big Protests Stall and Why They Still Matter
Mass mobilization can shift everything without winning that day.
